The Indian telecom sector may be headed for another tariff war, potentially triggered by Reliance Jio’s upcoming IPO. The IPO is anticipated to launch in the first half of 2026. Both Jio and Airtel are likely to increase tariffs before the IPO to improve their profitability and attract investors. Currently, companies have been focusing on low-priced plans, however, Jio and Airtel have recently removed their most affordable plans. This move directly impacts the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Airtel’s ARPU has reached Rs 250, while Jio’s ARPU is at Rs 208.8. Increasing tariffs could improve Jio’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), making the IPO more attractive to investors. Jio has over 500 million users, while Airtel has 362.8 million. Vodafone Idea (Vi) has 197.7 million users. If Jio increases its tariffs, Airtel is likely to follow suit, strengthening the earnings of both companies while potentially increasing pressure on Vi. Analysts estimate Jio’s valuation to be around $133 billion (approximately 11 lakh crore). The IPO could raise around $3 billion for Jio. However, some experts suggest that Reliance Industries shareholders might not benefit significantly due to a holding company discount. Mobile data and calling plans could become more expensive in the coming months, leading to higher recharge costs for mobile users. Jio and Airtel are expected to strengthen their positions, while Vi could face further challenges. Jio’s IPO will have a significant impact not only on the stock market but also on the pockets of mobile users. Ambani and Mittal are prepared with their respective plans, but the real pressure may be felt by the average user.
