Geopolitics, Crude Oil, and Data to Drive Stock Market

Indian stock markets enter a high-stakes week shaped by escalating Iran-US friction, surging crude prices, and a packed calendar of domestic economic releases. With Tehran preparing to unveil fresh plans to regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington maintaining pressure, traders are bracing for sharp swings. Oil prices jumped more than 3 percent on Friday alone after comments from both sides, pushing Brent up 7.84 percent and WTI up 10.48 percent for the week. The gains have dimmed hopes of an early agreement to ease tensions around the vital oil-shipping route. Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors continued their selling spree, dumping Rs 27,177 crore in May and pushing yearly outflows past Rs 2,31,486 crore. Primary market investments by FPIs stood at Rs 12,468 crore, yet overall sentiment remains cautious. On the data front, HSBC PMI figures due on 21 May and banking statistics scheduled for 22 May will offer fresh clues on economic health. The previous week saw Sensex fall 2,090 points or 2.70 percent to 75,237 while Nifty dropped 532 points or 2.20 percent to 23,643. Realty, IT, consumer durables, and defence sectors led the decline, whereas pharma and metals held up relatively better. Market participants expect choppy trade until clearer signals emerge on both the geopolitical and policy fronts.