With the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar scheduled for October-November, political fervor has escalated. The NDA coalition, led by Nitish Kumar, is employing various strategies to maintain its stronghold on the state’s power. While the NDA is focused on building a favorable political atmosphere based on the names and works of Nitish and Modi, the political scenario appears to be tilting in its favor, especially after ‘Operation Sindoor’. The NDA is weaving a complex tapestry of caste equations, nationalism, and Hindutva. In this scenario, will it be an easy task for the duo of Tejaswi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi to penetrate the NDA’s political ‘chakravyuha’ (a complex military formation)?
The political alliance of CM Nitish and PM Modi has not only strengthened but has also strategized with a refined caste equation. The positive environment created in favor of the NDA after the ‘Operation Sindoor’ conducted by the Indian Army in Pakistan after the ‘Pahalgam attack’, and the Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census, have taken a significant issue away from the opposition. The BJP has strategically planned to contest the Bihar elections on these very issues, and without breaking this strategy, it will be nearly impossible for the India alliance to end their political exile.
‘Operation Sindoor’ is an NDA’s Political Weapon. The first assembly election after ‘Operation Sindoor’ is going to be held in Bihar. After the Pahalgam attack, PM Modi vowed from Bihar itself to eliminate the terrorists. Through Operation Sindoor, the Indian Army destroyed the terrorist hideouts in Pakistan. BJP and its allied party leaders have started giving credit to PM Modi for Operation Sindoor, creating a political environment. In this way, the NDA has started setting the issue of nationalism as a political agenda in Bihar.
Feelings against Pakistan are already considered strong in Bihar. BJP is expecting the same positive impact from Operation Sindoor, similar to the air strike and surgical strike. The way PM Modi is mentioning Operation Sindoor in the rallies of Bihar is creating a political environment in favor of NDA. In such a situation, Tejaswi and Rahul Gandhi will have to find a counter to the NDA’s nationalist agenda.
NDA’s Caste Equation is Strong in Bihar. The NDA coalition in Bihar includes BJP, JDU, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Jitanram Manjhi’s HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha’s party. In this way, JDU and BJP have made efforts to create a strong caste equation through their alliance. BJP’s core vote bank is considered to be Rajputs, Brahmins, Bhumihars, Kayasthas, and Vaishyas. Apart from this, BJP has also made its mark in OBC and Dalit votes. Nitish Kumar’s JDU is considered to have a core vote bank of Kurmi and Ati-Pichhada. Manjhi has a strong foothold among the Musahars, while Chirag Paswan has a strong hold in the Dusadh community among the Dalits. Similarly, Upendra Kushwaha’s politics is based on Koiri votes.
The NDA has planned to contest the Bihar elections by creating a strong caste equation of Savarnas, Kurmis, Atipichhade, Koiris, and Dalits. In this way, the NDA has entered the electoral arena, setting a target of around 65 percent of the votes in Bihar. Without breaking the strong caste equation of the NDA, it will not be easy for Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav to return to power in Bihar.
NDA’s Caste Census Gambit. The politics of Bihar is completely centered around caste. OBCs constitute 65 percent of the population and Dalits constitute 17 percent in Bihar. In this way, the political duo of Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav were trying to corner the Modi government on the issue of caste census, but the Modi government has taken away a big issue of the India alliance by deciding to conduct a caste census along with the upcoming census.
The NDA has a stronger caste equation compared to the opposition India alliance. The recent announcement of the caste census by the Modi government is expected to benefit the NDA. Nitish Kumar has already conducted a caste survey in Bihar and now the caste census gambit of the Modi government will play a very important role in the elections. In such a situation, the duo of Tejaswi-Rahul will have to find new issues to corner the NDA.
Betting on the Names and Works of Modi-Nitish. The NDA has made a strategy to contest the Bihar assembly elections on the work and name of PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar. That is why it has been made clear before the elections that Nitish Kumar will be the CM face of the NDA coalition in 2025. In this way, a plan has been made to contest the elections in Bihar with the face of CM Nitish Kumar as well as the works done during his government. Apart from this, the most popular face of the NDA is considered to be PM Modi. Not only the BJP, but all the constituent parties of the NDA have decided that they will contest the Bihar elections on the name and work of PM Modi.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been focusing on Bihar especially since the Lok Sabha elections. By visiting Bihar one after the other, PM Modi is engaged in creating a political environment along with giving the gift of development. The opposition side of the Modi-Nitish pair is Rahul-Tejaswi pair. In such a situation, it remains to be seen which pair will be a hit in the Bihar elections.
BJP is Working to Set the Hindutva Agenda. In Bihar, the BJP is working to strengthen the Hindutva agenda along with nationalism and a strong caste equation. It is not easy for the opposition to defeat the BJP on the political pitch of Hindutva. That’s why the BJP has fielded its Union Minister Giriraj Singh in Bihar, who is known for aggressive Hindutva politics, to boost the morale of the BJP workers and to win over the majority voters by giving impetus to the Hindutva agenda. Recently, he also took out a Sanatan Yatra to unite Hindu votes.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has announced the construction of a Mata Sita temple in Bihar on the lines of the Ram temple. The BJP’s entire strategy is to unite the scattered Hindu votes among the castes through Hindutva, because the politics of caste has prevailed in Bihar. In this way, the BJP has made its preparations to win the Bihar elections. The party has faith in its strategy and hopes that it will form the government again under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. In this way, the BJP is paying attention to every aspect, be it caste equations, sympathy votes, or the impact of Operation Sindoor. The BJP does not want to show any laxity and is making every possible effort so that it can achieve success in the elections.
