Following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22nd, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, leading to significant outrage in Pakistan. Pakistani leadership, from Army Chief Asim Munir to other officials, understands that the suspension could devastate their country, potentially leading to famine. Consequently, Pakistan has been raising the issue internationally, making threats ranging from missile launches to declaring war.
India, however, has made it clear that blood and water cannot flow together. Undeterred by Pakistan’s threats, India has warned that Operation Sindoor is ongoing. Amidst this, questions are resurfacing about the possibility of a war between India and Pakistan over the Indus Waters Treaty. This article explores Pakistan’s threats and India’s strategic plans.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, stated that if India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty or constructs dams, it would lead to war. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of water projects on the Indus River is seen as a warning that Pakistan’s water supply could be cut off. Zardari has been highlighting the issue of India’s aggressive water policies during his foreign trips.
Bhutto has asserted that the people of Sindh will protect the Indus River if it is threatened. He believes Pakistan has the strength to confront Modi in a war scenario, and has warned India that Pakistan could reclaim all six of its rivers if another war breaks out. He has made previous statements regarding the Indus Water Treaty as well.
In June, Bhutto said that if India denies Pakistan its share of water under the Indus Waters Treaty, his country would initiate a war. He rejected India’s decision to suspend the treaty in a parliamentary speech, threatening to seize Pakistan’s share of water.
Addressing Pakistani expatriates in Tampa, Florida, Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir warned that if India obstructs the flow of water to Pakistan, Pakistan would destroy Indian infrastructure. He stated that Pakistan is a nuclear nation and would be prepared to inflict significant damage in retaliation. He claimed that the Indus Waters Treaty suspension threatens 250 million people with famine, adding that Pakistan is ready to destroy any dams built by India.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi detailed Operation Sindoor in the Lok Sabha on July 29th. He discussed India’s actions following the terrorist acts in Pahalgam. Modi stated that his government had ended the one-sided trade of terrorism and false optimism by revoking Pakistan’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status, imposing visa restrictions, and closing the Attari-Wagah border.
He cited the Indus Waters Treaty, which was agreed upon by a former Prime Minister, involving rivers that have long been a part of India’s cultural and spiritual heritage. These rivers originate in India and serve the citizens, especially the farmers of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. The government has now decided to postpone the Indus Waters Treaty, keeping national interests in mind. India has resolved that blood and water will not flow together.
India is rapidly working on plans to increase water extraction from the Indus River system. The focus is primarily on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, which currently provide most of the water to Pakistan. India’s plan includes expanding the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River, which was built in the 19th century. Currently, it is around 60 kilometers long, and the government aims to extend it to 120 kilometers, thereby increasing its water diversion capacity from 40 cubic meters per second to 150 cubic meters per second.
Additionally, India is considering other irrigation and hydropower projects that could further reduce water availability in the lower regions of the river. Reports suggest that a proposal to send water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers to the rivers of North Indian states is under consideration, which would further limit water flow to Pakistan. These projects include building dams with large water storage capacity.
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed by the then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani President Ayub Khan. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allocates water from six rivers between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers – Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi – while Pakistan controls the western rivers – Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. Under the treaty, India has permission to use the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower projects, but it is bound not to affect the water flowing to Pakistan.
