Afghanistan has announced plans to construct a significant dam on the Kunar River, a move that has sent ripples of concern through Pakistan. This ambitious project, driven by the Taliban, could drastically reduce Pakistan’s vital water supply, leaving the nation with limited recourse. The decision appears to be a direct response to recent Pakistani air strikes in Kabul and ongoing tensions along the Durand Line, suggesting a strategic “water revenge” is at play.
With India reportedly suspending aspects of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, Afghanistan’s dam initiative adds another layer to Pakistan’s mounting water security challenges. The Kunar River, a crucial tributary that eventually feeds into the Indus, is a lifeline for Pakistan’s agricultural heartlands.
Taliban Supreme Leader Maulvi Hibatullah Akhundzada has reportedly ordered an accelerated construction timeline, emphasizing the use of solely Afghan companies. This directive underscores the urgency and the strategic intent to control water flow. Afghan Water Minister Mullah Abdul Latif Mansoor has articulated this stance, stating that Afghans have the right to manage their water resources, effectively signaling a redirection of water intended for Pakistan.
The Kunar River, originating in Pakistan’s Chitral region, flows through Afghanistan before re-entering Pakistan and merging with the Kabul River to form the Indus. This dam, intended to generate 1,000 megawatts of hydropower for Afghanistan, could reduce water flow into Pakistan by an estimated 25-30%. Such a reduction would have devastating consequences, impacting agricultural irrigation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, jeopardizing food security, and potentially leading to severe drinking water shortages for millions. Furthermore, a significant drop in hydropower generation could plunge millions of Pakistani homes into darkness.
Pakistan finds itself in a precarious geographic position. While the river originates partly within its borders, its course through Afghanistan allows Kabul to control its return. Crucially, Afghanistan is not bound by any water treaties with Pakistan, amplifying Islamabad’s vulnerability in this unfolding water dispute.
