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Tensions are high in Europe regarding a potential meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump. European nations fear that Trump may pressure Ukrainian President Zelensky to concede to Putin’s demands, potentially leading to a victory for Russia. This has led to concerns that Putin might then launch further military actions in Europe. Consequently, there are claims that European countries are orchestrating efforts to undermine any potential ceasefire negotiations.
The anticipated meeting between Putin and Trump, possibly scheduled for August 15th, is viewed as a crucial move by the former U.S. President that could finalize a ceasefire deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump is reportedly confident that the meeting will lead to a ceasefire, which has caused alarm among European nations. Prior to the meeting, European countries, along with Ukraine and U.S. officials, are planning to hold discussions.
The meeting will take place in the UK with representatives from the involved nations to discuss the terms of a ceasefire. European countries are worried that Trump might bypass them to reach a peace agreement with Putin. This agreement would involve putting pressure on Zelensky to sign a ceasefire, effectively sidelining the European powers.
To counter this, European nations are attempting to influence Trump by applying pressure. They are reportedly engaging in secret discussions with Zelensky, urging him not to accept the terms proposed by Trump and Putin. Moreover, they are assuring continued arms supplies to Ukraine, even if the U.S. withdraws its support.
Reports indicate that countries such as the UK, Germany, and France are not keen on a ceasefire and would prefer to continue the conflict until Putin is completely defeated, regardless of the cost. The rationale behind this stance is the threat posed by Russia to Europe. There are fears that if the war ends, Putin could commence operations against Europe, potentially starting with the Suwalki Gap.
NATO is particularly concerned about this scenario. If a ceasefire is reached, it is believed that Putin might seize the Suwalki Gap and initiate his European campaign. This could involve capturing the 65-kilometer corridor that connects Russia’s Kaliningrad to Belarus. This concern stems from the deployment of Russia’s 71st Division, a Guards Motor Rifle Division formed in 2024, to Belarus. The division, consisting of approximately 5,000 soldiers, is stationed near the Suwalki Gap and is considered a highly formidable force. This division is a reorganization of the 200th Motor Rifle Division, which was involved in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 capture of Kharkiv. Now, the responsibility of seizing the Suwalki Gap is reportedly assigned to this division.
In addition to encircling the Suwalki Gap, Russia is also reportedly preparing for an offensive against Lithuania. This is based on increased Russian activities in the region. The presence of a Russian underwater drone near Nida, which is believed to have originated from Kaliningrad, has also raised concerns. Further, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s perceived threats to European countries are also adding to the tension.
Lukashenko’s stance is seen as a warning not only to Ukraine but also to Europe. He has made three key statements: Belarus is preparing for war; Zelensky should surrender if he wants to save Kyiv; and bases for the deployment of ‘Orationic’ have been finalized in Belarus. Lukashenko’s approach before the Putin-Trump talks is interpreted as a warning to both Ukraine and Europe. He has also stated that if Russia loses, the consequences will be severe.
Lukashenko has asserted that Russia will not lose, and the cost of its defeat will be significant, especially for the West. Therefore, the nuclear-armed nation will not be defeated, but Ukraine might face defeat. Consequently, European countries are trying to keep Russia engaged in the Ukraine war, which necessitates Zelensky’s rejection of a ceasefire. European nations are providing Ukraine with additional weaponry to achieve this.
Putin is also reportedly preparing for missile tests. The European Union has announced a €274 billion aid package to Ukraine, which will be used to supply new weapons. Putin, aware of the European strategy, held an emergency meeting with members of Russia’s Security Council to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Europe. Russia is expected to unveil a new and devastating military capability to Europe soon. Putin is preparing to test the Burevestnik missile, with tests scheduled to take place in Novaya Zemlya. Warships have been deployed in the Barents Sea to secure the test site, and a NOTAM has been issued across a 500-kilometer area.
In addition, Russia has begun constructing its first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, which is viewed as a new threat to Europe. All these preparations by Putin are thought to be aimed at a European campaign, which could be launched after achieving objectives in Ukraine.
