Amidst escalating global nuclear tensions, India is re-evaluating its stance on nuclear testing. The debate resurfaced following reports of former U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting renewed American nuclear testing and claims of covert experiments by Pakistan. These developments, coupled with Russia’s reported Poseidon underwater drone tests, have disrupted the global nuclear balance, prompting strategic considerations in New Delhi.
India has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing since the 1998 Pokhran-II tests. This commitment to ‘credible minimum deterrence’ underpins its no-first-use nuclear policy. However, the evolving international security landscape is leading experts to question if continued restraint serves India’s long-term interests. Some strategists propose that if other major powers resume testing, India should seize the moment to conduct its own thermonuclear tests. This, they argue, would validate its advanced nuclear capabilities and dispel any lingering doubts about the effectiveness of its 1998 hydrogen bomb test.
India currently possesses an estimated 180 warheads, with neighbors Pakistan and China holding significant arsenals of approximately 170 and 600 warheads, respectively. China’s growing arsenal and its deployment of advanced ICBMs with MIRV capabilities present a complex deterrence challenge for India. While any new Indian test would carry diplomatic risks, including potential international criticism, proponents argue that technological parity and credibility in a competitive environment necessitate such a move. The decision hinges on balancing national security imperatives with international commitments.
