Recent events have highlighted significant vulnerabilities within the Pakistan army, creating an environment ripe for escalated attacks by various militant outfits. Following embarrassing security lapses and substantial casualties inflicted by groups it allegedly fostered, Pakistan faces a precarious situation. While a fragile truce with the Taliban is in place, its longevity is uncertain. The increasing success of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against the army has emboldened other extremist organizations to challenge the state. Security analysts observe a unified intent among several groups, including the TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), to dismantle the current establishment and impose their version of Islamic rule. The LeJ, historically focused on sectarian violence against minorities, may broaden its targets and could potentially realign with either the ISKP or the TTP, given their past associations. The ISKP, initially used by Pakistan against the Afghan Taliban, might reconsider its stance given the current peace accord and could gravitate towards the LeJ rather than the TTP, which is perceived to have Afghan Taliban backing. The distinct origins of ISKP from former TTP members make a direct alliance unlikely. Regardless of inter-group dynamics, these organizations are keenly aware of the Pakistan army’s weakened state and are poised to increase their attacks, even if operating independently. Intelligence assessments indicate a surge in militant activity is imminent. Furthermore, Pakistan’s capacity to leverage groups like Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT) or Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) for counter-terrorism is diminished. The JeM maintains a complicated relationship with the establishment and could fracture if forced to confront the TTP, to which it shows sympathy, along with the Afghan Taliban. Similarly, the LeT, despite its general loyalty, experienced internal dissent over Pakistan’s past cooperation with the US, with some factions threatening to defect to the Taliban. Compounding these threats, Baloch nationalist groups, driven by secular separatism, are also intensifying their campaign against the Pakistan army and Chinese interests, recognizing the army’s multi-front struggles and planning for a more significant push for independence.
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