A youth movement lasting only two days in Nepal ousted former Prime Minister KP Oli. The repercussions of this week’s events in Nepal extend beyond its political boundaries, impacting the entirety of Asian politics. Oli was considered a close ally of China.
His removal suggests that the United States has executed a strategic move, directly impacting China. Nepal has historically balanced relations with India and China. However, under Oli’s leadership, Nepal’s inclination towards China increased. He supported Beijing’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative,’ even participating in China’s Victory Day parade, which caused concern in the United States.
Reports indicate the United States revived the Millennium Challenge Compact (MCC) in Nepal this year. This project, supported by approximately $500 million, aims to strengthen energy and road infrastructure. It is seen as a direct competitor to China’s ‘Belt and Road.’ Therefore, analysts believe that the United States may have played a significant role in the discontent and protests against Oli.
The current situation involves Oli’s removal, with Sushila Karki taking on the role of interim Prime Minister. Karki has good relations with India, having studied at Banaras Hindu University and expressing gratitude, referencing PM Modi. It is clear that Nepal’s politics now show a slight distance from China and a closer alignment with India and the United States.
Some years ago, tensions arose between India and the United States due to tariff disputes. However, the situation is changing. Discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the U.S. leadership are increasing. A U.S. delegation may visit India next week, potentially including a deal for -8I aircraft. If clarity emerges on tariffs, relations between India and the United States could return to normal. This implies pressure on China. India is the only power in Asia that can challenge China. The United States understands this well and is working to improve relations with the Modi government.
Pakistan has long been China’s closest ally, receiving economic and defense assistance from Beijing. However, Pakistan’s political and economic challenges have altered the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump, during his second term, appears to be favoring Pakistan. The Pakistani Army Chief recently dined with the U.S. President at the White House. This is a significant gesture, indicating that the United States is attempting to win over China’s most trusted ally.
