The future of not just Ukraine, but also Europe, hangs in the balance. This is the context of the meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with the former reportedly putting pressure on Zelenskyy even before the talks began. The possibility that Zelenskyy will concede to Trump’s demands is considered low. The key question is: what happens if Trump, Zelenskyy, and Europe fail to reach an agreement? Could Putin escalate the war into Europe? And, if so, what will be America’s stance?
The meeting is poised to shape the destiny of Ukraine and Europe. It’s anticipated that Trump might employ tactics such as offers, threats, or pressure to persuade Zelenskyy. Trump has already initiated exerting pressure on Zelenskyy before the meeting.
Trump has given Zelenskyy the final decision-making power. He has also cautioned that if Zelenskyy does not accept Putin’s terms for a ceasefire, then like Crimea, Russia will seize the rest of Ukraine’s territory by force, and no one will be able to prevent it. Putin has already clarified that even if a ceasefire agreement is not reached, he will still occupy Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Therefore, a key question remains: what options will America have if a deal cannot be made?
It’s believed that the United States might opt to stay out of the war, similar to its position at the start of both World War I and World War II. America may remain neutral until the war extends into Europe. Once the conflict reaches Europe, the United States might join the winning side.
America’s involvement in World War I in 1917 and World War II in April 1917 saw the U.S. initially maintaining a distance. After three years of World War I, America declared war against Germany. While in World War II, it declared war against Japan nearly two years after the war started, joining the Allies. In both cases, the United States emerged victorious. However, America’s entry into both wars was driven by specific reasons. It is believed that America strategically sided with the stronger faction.
Now, the question is, if the Ukraine war spreads to Europe, will America support Russia or Europe? This decision will hinge on an assessment of their economic and military strength.
The world hopes for peace following the White House meeting. However, the likelihood is low, given Europe’s preparations, which could be a significant factor in the escalation of the Ukraine war. France and Britain have developed a post-ceasefire plan. They are preparing to deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine.
European nations have agreed on the decision of France and Britain.
Zelenskyy might ask Trump for a guarantee of security after a ceasefire. However, the likelihood of Putin agreeing to deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine is slim. NATO has deployed a reassurance force in nine Eastern European countries. This provides a security guarantee to allied nations.
The Reassurance Force is deployed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. The forces of four countries border the northwest of Russia. Poland’s border touches Belarus, which is a friendly nation to Russia. Furthermore, Romania and Bulgaria are connected to the Black Sea. This means that Ukraine is the only part where NATO troops are not near the Russian border. Putin will never agree to deploy a reassurance force in this region.
Europe is left with only one remaining option: to continue supplying Ukraine with weapons, thus keeping Russia entangled in the war. Europe is believed to have initiated preparations for this. It is claimed that Ukraine has started producing its long-range cruise missile, the Flamingo.
While Ukraine claims it as an indigenous missile, the technology is believed to have originated in Europe. This would allow Ukraine to attack within Russia up to 3000 km without Europe facing any accusations.
